This is a posting about the epic shift in our lives – economically, politically, and socially. Here I use my ROIL system to give you a broad picture of what I see that will affect how you work and live. I’m not clairvoyant, so I need your input too.

One night in the 1990s I’m preparing for an 11 o’clock newscast. One of my co-workers, Leigh McCormack, had just returned to work from having the flu. When I asked her if she was feeling better, she strangely replied, “I thought I was, but suddenly I’m beginning to feel a little queasy.”

A minute later the newsroom was filled with loud beeps coming from every computer. That meant a big breaking story. The news alert read: “Major earthquake hits Southern California.” Fortunately, the temblor was caused by a fault in the desert so there was minimal damage.

After a few minutes, Leigh was fine. She realized her sudden nausea had nothing to do with her flu but the earthquake. She felt the temblor and the unsettling feeling threw off her equilibrium.

I felt nothing that night. However, other California quakes have rocked me out of my sleep. One night my wife frantically woke me as the bed shook and the ceiling fan swayed.

That story is a good parallel to what’s happening to us right now. We’re going through massive changes. Some people, like Leigh, can sense there’s something unsettling, but they don’t know what it is. Others, like me that night, can’t sense anything.

We are experiencing massive changes here and worldwide. It’s more than just the economic downturn. And until we understand that something is really happening, we won’t be able to cope with it.

I don’t have all the answers. Who does? Even the smartest people in government and business are stumped. I can only describe to you the ground movements; it’s up to you how to brace yourself. Some will get hurt; some will survive and thrive; and some will think, “Wow what a trip.”

First, the old adages and clichés that seemed so absolute are now false.

For instance, cut taxes and the rich will provide jobs. Right now, everyone is trying to save. They’re not investing in companies or creating jobs. Furthermore, most business consultants advise the use of more technology and less labor. And what labor that can be used is outsourced; that means part-time work and no benefits for someone from India.

Most economic forecasts say the unemployment rate will remain high as will taxes. We’re going to need more government to provide a safety net for more people while also trying to regulate and create a level playing field for business.

Another adage is if you invest your money in the stock market and hold it, your wealth will grow. After all, if you look at any period of the stock market for 100 years, it has always gone up.

You can’t say that anymore. If you invested $100,000 in 1997 in the S&P 500 and didn’t touch it, today you would have … drum roll … the same $100,000.

The future of investing is changing. You will need a sharp money manager who will need to move quickly, take smaller gains to re-invest rather than hold and wait. You will need to be diversified with insurance and other tangible assets. And as you will see by reading on about the high cost of money, you will need to become more lender than borrower. I’ll have more at JohnDalyInsurance.

Second, the jobs created are the jobs you create for yourself.

We are entering a new age of entrepreneurship where the successful people will work for themselves with few or no employees. The internet and various internet marketing programs will make this phenomenon happen. Already, we’re seeing businesses turn to social networking websites to market their products and services as opposed to the traditional media.

Go to RealMoneyShow and see the numerous video interviews I conducted with internet marketers who say they can make your business successful.  One of my new ventures is a reverse auction site, JohnDalyAuctions.

The message is clear. If you’re not on the Internet, get there and start educating yourself or find someone who can partner with you. If your company only uses the Internet for a small portion of your business activity, get ready to increase that.

Third, start your business from the ground up – by yourself.

Don’t expect someone to invest in you or your enterprise. Right now, the cost of borrowing money is too high. As a business person you need impeccable credit; and even that might not qualify you now. When you do qualify and the banks have loosened up, the rates will be much higher than what we’re used to.

So, the cost of doing business will be higher. As mentioned above: doing it yourself, using cutting edge and cost saving technology, and outsourcing are the answers; not hiring workers.

In addition, investors or venture capitalists are becoming worthless. I’ve been around enough of them lately. They seem to fall into these categories: cautious to near paranoid; robbers; or ghosts.

The cautious to near paranoid group will look at a small company and show great interest and then when it comes time to invest, they find some reason to not invest.

For instance, a good friend was interested in one of the projects I rep. Her first remark was “What do I get for my five million?” At first I was encouraged until she told me she had her investment money in a trust account. Then I knew she wasn’t going to invest. No trust officer will allow the money, he or she is getting fees on, to leave that account. Sure enough, two weeks later she said she couldn’t invest based on her advisor’s recommendation.

The robbers are people who want to invest as little as possible but want the majority of the company ownership. In short, their too small investment will sink the company but they’ll walk away with all the technology.

The ghosts are people who talk a big game about all the assets they have and what they’re going to do — then they disappear. Most of them are charlatans or egomaniacs who waste your time.

A little background here: the companies I rep are either established companies with a track record of sales or a history in their field. And most of them have patented technologies.  You can read about some of them at JohnDalyConsulting.

So, do it yourself.

Fourth, the era of the mega-corporation is slowly dwindling.

Wall Street executives, once seen as icons of capitalism, are now considered greedy thieves that have helped put us into this mess. The truth is we’re all to blame.

But the vitriol against corporate America is real. Besides losing jobs in these companies, we’re also losing our retirement savings from investing in these companies.

Most Americans get this. Our political leaders ignore it because big business puts a lot of money in their campaigns. There are numerous stories where Fortune 500 companies get government contracts illegally that are supposed to only go to small businesses, but Congress and even the Obama White House ignores this. 

The corruption between big business and Congress – Republicans and Democrats — is expected. Small business owners don’t have millions of dollars to lavish on politicians who can earmark certain policies that will bring a company millions. For big business, legal political pay-outs are a good investment.

What’s astounding to me is the number of small business owners who tout the Republican line when the GOP could care less about small business. The Democrats are no less clean. Look at the trouble Democratic Senator Christopher Dodd now confronts. He is apparently left hanging as the one who allowed the astounding AIG bonuses.

At some point our politicians – and hopefully the small business community – will realize this and start creating policy that will benefit all businesses. I’m hopeful that President Obama is seeing all this. His actions over the next two years will tell.

Why is all this happening and on what do I base these themes?

I simply used my ROIL (read, observe, interview, and learn) system.

The basis of my thoughts is what I’ve been reading coupled with my observations working with the companies I rep and in interviews with folks who are seeing their businesses and lives change.

Here are a couple of websites and books you should read.

First is a book, The Great Depression Ahead, by Harry Dent. Dent is an economist who uses demographic research to forecast what is expected to happen. Although Dent’s previous books and forecasts have been wrong, his theories and reasoning make sense and are worth reading.

Primarily, Dent looks at the aging baby-boomers. They’ve reached retirement and their consumption is dropping. How can we continue this consumption economy over the last 40 years when the main force behind the economy is now turning to savings?

Dent also looks at the aging populations of China, Japan, and Russia. Commodity prices and economic activity will slow as a result while government intervention and safety nets will be needed even more.

Although Dent’s book title signifies doom and gloom, there will be innovations and progress. Dent believes the economic force in the new century is going to be India.

Again, don’t take Dent as gospel. Although many forecasters are getting better and more precise, the one thing they can’t predict is a black swan event. Read The Black Swan by Nicholas Taleb and you will understand that predicting the future is almost impossible.

You should also read a report by Ian Davis of the McKinsey Report. Davis discusses the changes ahead for business – mainly the high cost of borrowing and more big government.

A website to explore is ThoughtsFromTheFrontline by John Mauldin. He’s an economist who consults for investment firms and their investors. He’s been on-target about what the real problems are in this new economy.

I will also direct you to other experts here on this website and some of my other sites.

In the meantime, give me your thoughts and experiences that either confirm or contradict what I’m sensing.

 

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