This is a posting about a Russian analyst who believes the United States will not exist by 2010 and will be broken up into various parts owned by other countries. Sure, it’s silly stuff. But let’s look at the underlying reasons for such a prediction – while looking at ourselves.

 

According to Igor Panarin, in two years I'll be living here in Las Vegas under the government of the Peoples Republic of China.

 

Panarin is a Russian academic who has predicted that the United States would dissolve into four different countries and be run by other countries.

 

For example, the Northeast and parts of the Midwest would be part of the European Union. (Would that mean easier access to Amsterdam?)

 

The northern plains would be Canadian. (Think of how much better the NHL would be with fewer teams. And Canada almost certainly wins the gold medal in the winter Olympics.)

 

The Republic of Texas would be part of Mexico. (And this will bring one of the bloodiest civil wars of all time. Bush and Cheney would be the new el Presidentes, getting what they've wanted all along: controlling all oil reserves and declaring war on a group of people who are clearly evil - the drug traffickers.)

 

And folks like me in the Far West would be under China. (I can see us Las Vegans thinking that the gaming industry will prosper greatly. But I doubt our comrades in Idaho are going to be passive when it comes to the Chinese.)

 

And, here's the best: Russia would get Alaska back. (Wouldn't that be justice for Sarah Palin? If she's still governor, she would be taking orders from Vlad Putin.)

 

Surely, this is silly stuff. Panarin is trained by the Kremlin so there is plenty of Russian wishful thinking. It makes me realize that Russian intelligence is as out of whack as ours was before 9/11.

 

I emailed the article to my friend, John Alexander, a PhD who consults for U.S. Special Forces. He wrote back: "While we have some significant problems, I suspect he (Panarin) is pretty far off base."

 

Panarin really doesn't appear (notice I said "doesn't appear") to "get" Americans. And I'd bet he never saw Casablanca. Remember the Nazi, Major Strasser. He asks Rick about German forces marching into New York City. Rick replies, "Well there are certain sections of New York, Major, that I wouldn't advise you to try to invade." The same holds true today whether it's Baltimore, Miami, LA, or Boise.

 

Apparently Panarin thinks Americans and Russians are alike. A Washington Post article offers some good counter-balance to Panarin. The article quotes Thomas Baerwald, an investigator in a project called "Beyond Borders" and past president of the Association of American Geographers. He compares Americans to the citizens who were living under the former Soviet Union.

 

“We constantly were corrected when we tried to use the term ‘Soviets’ as a catch-all phrase for residents of the U.S.S.R.,” Baerwald says. “People firmly told us that they were Russians or Lithuanians or Estonians or Ukrainians or other terms that identified a region or subregion that described their own geographical identity. In contrast, if you ask U.S. residents what term describes who they are, an enormous majority will reply ‘I am an American.’ Even in those places where regional loyalties are especially strong, such as Texas, loyalties to the U.S. are far greater than they are to states or regions.

 

Still, Panarin's predictions resonate. He hits home in a slightly unsettling way. No one in America would have heard of Panarin if the Wall Street Journal didn't publish a front-page story on his findings and the Russian media frenzy following him. Ironically, it is still the most read article on the Wall Street Journal online. Don't negate this.

 

So, someone is obviously giving Panarin an ounce of "what if?"

 

And it's for good reason, too. We are in a financial mess that most of us can't figure out. We see our leaders - namely the supposedly smarts ones like Paulson and Bernanke - scratching their heads. President Obama has to put together a team that is non-partisan; in other words, they really have to work since going to Washington isn't a perk anymore but a responsibility as a citizen of this country. He's really serious and that scares us.

 

I've written about a possible Armageddon here. I still say you need to keep cash on reserve for 2009 and be prepared to protect yourself and your loved ones. Too often, I hear from friends - wealthy friends - who don't sleep at night wondering if their fortunes are going to be wiped out.

 

We also hear from pundits, sure they seem extreme, who say we're printing so much money that we will have devalued the dollar to nothing, leading us to a regional currency called the Amero that will include Mexico and Canada. Others say our debt is owned by China, Saudi Arabia, and Dubai: if we default, then they own us. Hey we trashed the analysts a few years ago who said we are headed for a housing collapse. Who wouldn't at least listen to these new theories?

 

However, before you run for the hills with shot-guns and survivalist supplies or you start trying to speak a foreign language to get acquainted with your new oppressors or lawmakers, let me assure you I'm only making a point here. We're not going to disintegrate.

 

However, Panarin's theory is partially right. And this is the lesson we need to take from the theories of this Russian.

 

We have disintegrated as a country. We have strayed from our ideals. Am I condemning America? No, we suffered through 9/11 and its effects are far deeper than we imagined. As a result, we have, at times, stopped being the America we once were.

 

When President Bush and VP Cheney point to their enduring achievement, it's that we were not attacked again on American soil after 9/11. They're right. But they're wrong, too. As a result of that goal, which we all clung to, we became a different country. We invaded Iraq. We told the rest of the world, "You're either with us or against us." We became a black and white country; we never saw the gray. Our leaders sounded like Fascists. We acted like Fascists, torturing to allegedly stop torture.

 

---