Posted August 16, 2008 – A Democratic source has told me that, in Vegas lingo, it’s 80-20 or 70-30 that Senator Joe Biden from Delaware will be Obama’s VP choice. We could get the news this week.

 

Is this set in stone? Not yet.

 

But here are the two reasons Biden is now the leading the VP sweepstakes ahead of Indiana Senator Evan Bayh who seemed to be a sure bet a few days ago.

 

The first reason appears to be the game changer: the Russia-Georgia conflict. Michael Tomasky, in the British publication The Guardian, commented on Biden’s chances growing in a recent blog. Since the conflict isn’t going away, Tomasky writes:

 

Biden’s foreign-affairs experience may therefore come in awfully handy, not only on the stump but, if elected, once in office. Biden can go toe-to-toe with McCain on global questions with more authority than Bayh (or frankly Obama) can. And he wouldn’t be shy about doing it. Interesting thought.

 

Well, Michael, according to my source your interesting thought is about to become Democratic reality. I should mention that other political blogs are catching the momentum to Biden too, especially after an Op-ed piece Biden wrote in the Financial Times on the conflict which had foresight and even-handedness.

 

For Evan Bayh, it’s bad timing. Bayh has experience at running government. He would give Obama what Gore brought Clinton; someone who could delve into the tedium of government machinations and make something happen positively. However, that’s not topic one anymore.

 

Thanks to Putin flexing his muscles, the emphasis seems to have moved toward someone with large foreign policy experience – like Biden. I should note that Bayh is no foreign policy slouch, even though most observers would give Biden the upper hand in dealing with foreign policy.

 

But there’s a second reason for Biden’s ascendency that could cure a political dilemma facing Obama when he goes to Denver. The problem is Hillary.

 

Biden, according to my source, can corral the Hillary voters: women in their 50s and 60s. My source explains that Biden was the main force behind The Violence Against Women Act in the 1990s. “He’s almost considered a woman,” the source told me, meaning it as the highest of compliments. If Biden is selected by Obama you will hear more and more about this legislation.

 

The problem Obama has in choosing Biden is that Biden might overshadow him. He could become Dukakis’ Lloyd Benson in 1988. Biden is dynamic, he’s smart, and he’s great copy for writers and TV folk.

 

However, that leads to another problem: Joe sometimes talks too much. And when he tries to be funny, he overreaches and sometimes puts his foot in his mouth.

 

If Biden is the choice, it will be a good one for Obama. However, it will force McCain to find someone equally as dynamic with the ability to verbally spar, and frankly, I can’t think of anyone right now. Maybe Johnny Mac brings back Dick Armey?

 

 

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