Either Putin’s brilliant or the Bush government is out to lunch. It’s actually both.

Stratfor was the first to pinpoint it for me. You need a subscription to their reports, but let me give you a quick synopsis of what I had been thinking and some of what Stratfor reported a few days after Georgia’s invasion of South Ossetia and then Russia’s retaliatory invasion of Georgia.

This was a colossal mistake by Georgia. They invaded South Ossetia to stop some of the cross border bombings – something that had been happening for a while. Why would they send in troops now?

The quick and massive response makes one think that Russia had covertly orchestrated this all along, coaxing Georgia into a fight. Worse, U.S. intelligence and diplomats failed to either dissuade Georgia or failed to see the Russians hanging on the border ready to pounce.

To countries in Eastern Europe we look like a toothless tiger. We roar and then show our gums. We’re bogged down in the Middle East; our economy is dragging in part because we can’t control energy costs; and the world is growing so dramatically that it’s too big for us to baby-sit.

So, why would we try to attract these countries that border on Russia and invite them into NATO with the assurance of defending them – and then fail to not only defend them, but to warn them or to even counsel them?

In some circles, these governments could actually think America might be working in concert with Russia; a bit far-fetched and better suited for an espionage thriller, but not out of the realm of possibility.

More likely, the answer is that America is an energy weakling. Energy is the Holy Grail in this new century. Russia, Venezuela, and the Middle East have it; America doesn’t. Putin has brilliantly converted petro-dollars into regional power.

I posted an article I wrote from Russia six years ago.  I met a young Russian sailor Andre and how he made ends meet in post-Soviet Russia.

Andre is a Russian sailor. He makes one hundred dollars a month to support three boys and his wife in a small apartment. To survive, he is part of the new underground Moscow economy. Two days a week, he drives around Moscow picking up people who need a ride. A traveler simply sticks out a thumb, a driver stops, you negotiate a fee, and you get to your destination. No taxi authority is necessary.

I would bet that Andre, if still in the Russian Navy, is getting along much better thanks to the petro-dollars. Plus, his military colleagues are better trained – as we heard in Georgia.

Before we condemn Russia, let’s look at the situation through their eyes.

First, Russia was told by the previous two American presidents that we would not try to enlarge NATO with former Soviet Republics. We reneged on that.

Second, we want to put missiles in the region that can strike Russia.

Third, we helped Kosovo secede from Serbia, a Russian ally, despite Russia’s efforts to allow Kosovo to remain autonomous within Serbia.

Fourth, we arm and train Georgia soldiers. Think of Georgia as Cuba; we wouldn’t allow that.

Fifth, historically Russia has been threatened in the past. When you look at all the moves the West made, it’s easy for Russians to think that their country could be choked off economically. I don’t think the Russian reaction was any different than the French reaction to us before Sarkozy; they weren’t upset we went into Iraq, they’re upset that our way or life may diminish or eliminate French culture.

Sixth, the Russians invaded a small country to make a point – not to build a new empire. And, as The Art of War explains, they attacked when they were strong; the Russian economy is in relatively good shape and their coffers with petro-dollars is very strong at least in the short term.

I’m not defending any of Russia’s or Putin’s moves. In the long run, this could hurt Russia – especially if other energy sources are found. We won’t know for years if Putin erred. Certainly he made the right move in the eyes of most Russians. As an outsider, I believe he has, first and foremost, the Russian people’s backs.

The Bush Administration is a different story. They miscalculated again. Or, they failed to have a clear-thinking, forward looking policy.

We need Russia for a number of things. The first is their oil that will heat and keep Europe going. Second, we need Russia to reign in Iran so that oil will continue to flow and cost less. (Notice the oil theme.) Third, Russia wants to be a power again, but they’re not going to take over the world.

Go back and read my piece and see my impressions of the Russian people. They don’t want the disgrace they endured as the Berlin Wall and Communism fell. They have a history they’re proud of. More importantly, they want to achieve economically. And, as we’ve proven, they don’t trust us.

Maybe Obama and Johnny Mac are re-thinking their desire to be Bush’s successor.

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